Bitcoin Price Stalls Near $65K as Markets Await Critical US Jobs Data

Markets are pricing in the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' July jobs report, the single data point with the most near-term price impact heading into the September FOMC cycle. Simultaneously, the Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit has pushed confirmed losses to roughly 1,596 BTC — about $130 million — with a suspected fourth wave that could lift the figure past 2,000 BTC if validated.

Jobs Print vs. Rate-Cut Arithmetic

The macro setup is straightforward. ADP's private-payrolls read earlier this week came in soft, reinforcing the downside-surprise case for the BLS headline. A weak print raises the probability of a September rate cut — a scenario risk assets generally trade higher into. A stronger number does the opposite: dampens easing expectations, pressures BTC back toward lower support bands.

Levels to watch:

• Immediate resistance: $65,500–$66,500 band.
• Short-term holder cost basis: ~$69,000. Price needs to reclaim this for any durable recovery thesis.
• EMA50 support: $64,345.64; EMA200: $63,705.76. Both anchor the current bullish structure.
• RSI at 63.65 — neutral territory, leaving room in either direction.
• MACD golden cross at 286.36 — confirms trend strength on the daily, but a retrace to the 50-EMA before continuation would be a textbook move.

The jobs report sets the tone for the session and positioning into next week. Nothing else on the calendar carries comparable weight right now.

Coldcard Exploit: Losses Still Climbing

Galaxy Research's running tally now sits at approximately 1,596 BTC stolen from close to 7,300 addresses across three confirmed waves and more than a dozen smaller incidents. That figure is roughly 13% higher than two days ago as investigators continue identifying affected wallets.

A fourth attack wave remains unconfirmed but could push cumulative losses past 2,000 BTC — a number that would place the Coldcard exploit among the largest self-custody failures in Bitcoin's history. The attack directly undermines the hardware-wallet security narrative that underpins a significant share of long-term holder behavior.

Separately, reporting from Decrypt indicates AI-driven tooling is now actively uncovering critical exploits across core Bitcoin projects — a development that adds a new vector of security scrutiny to the ecosystem. The full implications are still unfolding, but the combination of an active hardware-wallet breach and automated vulnerability discovery warrants elevated caution on custody assumptions. For those tracking how broader preservation frameworks adapt under regulatory pressure, even outside crypto — from digital asset custody standards to heritage conservation programs in historic districts — the pattern is consistent: systems that appear structurally sound often carry latent risk until stress-tested.

What to Do With This

• If you hold BTC on a Coldcard device: verify wallet addresses against published breach lists. Assume compromise until confirmed otherwise.
• Macro traders: position sizing should reflect binary jobs-report risk. The range is tight; the breakout, when it comes, will be sharp.
• Yield and structure: the MACD cross supports continuation, but the RSI and Bollinger upper-band resistance at $65,306.47 argue against chasing. A pullback to $64,345 is the cleaner entry from a risk-reward standpoint.

The September rate-cut debate and the Coldcard investigation are the two variables most likely to shape BTC's next meaningful move. Everything else is noise until the jobs data lands.